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China – Fitch sets the bar for Grand Lisboa Palace at US$258m next year

By - 18 January 2021

Grand Lisboa Palace, SJM Holding’s long-awaited casino property in Cotai, could generate GGR of HK$2bn (US$258m) in 2022, increasing to HK$3.5bn (US$450m) by 2023, according to analytical group Fitch Ratings.

The property is on course to debut in the first quarter of the year following a series of setbacks that have delayed launch for well over a year.

Fitch said: “Fitch believes Grand Lisboa Palace will allow SJM to gain a foothold in Cotai and raise its market share. We forecast Grand Lisboa Palace will have EBITDA of HK$2bn with 330 tables by 2022 and HK$3.5bn with 380 tables by 2023, which will be partially offset by slightly lower EBITDA at its existing properties due to table reallocation and business diverted to Grand Lisboa Palace.

“Rivals Wynn Palace, which opened in August 2016, had EBITDA of HK$5bn (US$645m) with 325 tables in 2019, and MGM Cotai, which opened in February 2018, had EBITDA of HK$2.4bn (US$310m) with 259 tables in 2019. SJM’s development pipeline has been focused on Grand Lisboa Palace, which was completed in 2020, and all material outstanding payments will be made by 2021, for which funds have been secured,” Fitch added.

“Thereafter, Fitch forecasts maintenance capex of just HK$500m (US$64.5m) a year. Fitch does not expect the company to make any major investments in the foreseeable future as there is no more land available for gaming development in Macau and overseas investments are unlikely.”

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