Macau produces its best month of gaming revenue since COVID
Macau’s casinos generated their highest monthly total since COVID with May bringing in US$2.62bn in gaming revenues, according to figures released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ),.
May’s total saw a five per cent increase year-on-year and a 12.4 per cent rise from the month earlier, driven by a strong May Golden Week holiday period from May 1 to 5. May’s total was 81.7 per cent of May 2019 levels.
There has been a slight improvement with the year so far, too, with the first five months of 2025 bringing in GGR of US$12.1bn, up 1.7 per cent.
Analysts believe the May 2025 quarter will be the first in a while to actually hit earnings predictions.
JP Morgan analysts DS Kim and Selina Li said: “Even with some moderation in June, 2Q25 appears to be the first ‘non-miss’ quarter in quite some time, likely growing by two per cent to three per cent year-on-year or one per cent quarter-on-quarter.”
“The bar wasn’t low, with street expectations already adjusted upward – from an initial -1 percent year-on-year to +2 percent – to reflect the strong Golden Week, and the clean beat is impressive given the ongoing macro headwinds.
“The print translates into a recovery rate of 82 percent versus pre-Covid, the best since re-opening, and we estimate mass/slot has recovered to 120 per cent to 121 per cent versus VIP at 24 per cent to 25 percent.”
“In the ultra high-end segments – specifically direct VIPs and super premium-mass – competition has stabilized since 2H24 and into 1Q/2Q, with operators seemingly in an (implicit) agreement to keep current reinvestment levels,” they added.
“For other segments, Sands appears to be stepping up on promotions and free offerings (such s food and drinks on the floor), but this is more of a laggard catchup rather than an indication of rising competition, in our view. Additionally, OPEX remains very stable across the board (aside from the usual 4Q seasonality with higher spend), including concession-related non-gaming commitments. Overall, we expect margins to remain stable, with topline/GGR driving the EBITDA trajectory from here.”
Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, added: “The Dragon Boat holiday was early this year, starting on May 31, rather than mid-June as was last year. The May Golden Week… was strong and the fall off following the holiday was not as large as some had anticipated. We conservatively estimate June GGR to be +3.4 percent year-on-year, -13.7 percent month-on-month.”
