Pulse

Net returns: can tennis outcompete all-comers?

By William - 22 January 2020

Tennis has played third-fiddle to football and horse-racing in terms of punter popularity, but can accurate up-to-the-second data change the sports betting hierarchy? G3 discusses betting on tennis, pricing and the US market with FSB’s CEO, David McDowell.

Betting on tennis seems to have taken off. As the Australian Open approaches, do you agree?

To be honest, tennis has long been a popular sport to bet on. It consistently ranks third in annual turnover behind the hardy perennials of football and horse racing – and has done so for some time now. Therefore, the cat is well and truly out of the bag! Any spike this year, or over the upcoming fortnight at the Australian Open, will just be a continuation of that trend, as opposed to a step change.

Why are bettors becoming so switched on to the action?

While tennis has always generated plenty of betting appeal, there’s no doubt that it has been particularly well-served by recent gains in data and automation. With accurate, up-to-the-second scores running directly – and increasingly reliably – off feeds from the umpire’s chair, there are many more opportunities to bet in-play than most other sports – and on a myriad or markets. In short, somewhere in the world, someone’s invariably playing a competitive match that’s live and accessible. Harnessing this match data by allowing operators to integrate, process and manage these feeds in their systems is the crucial component to engaging bettors – and is another technical challenge at which FSB’s automated platform excels.

What do people bet on, and is there anything about tennis that makes it unique?

I don’t know about unique necessarily, but the key factor is any sport’s inherent intricacies – especially for in-play betting. Or, in essence, how hard is it to get a trading handle on the key variables that impact performance, activity and scoring? Football was miles clear, not because of its popularity, but because a definitive knowledge of these variables is more easily acquired. Tennis has caught up quickly – although, as we alluded to, a lack of reliability can creep in when demotivated “scouts” or even match umpires react slowly or poorly to feed the scoring system.

In a perfect world, though, if you set the automated dials correctly, above all in-play, there should never be a need for a market suspension around a break point, or a Hawk Eye challenge. Ultimately, there should always be a live price. As for the betting themselves, the breadth and variety of all markets speak to all player proclivities. From match winner, through correct set score, to game-by-game or even point-by-point winner, there’s a betting opportunity for the traditional outright better alongside other short-form options.

Are outrights the most popular or are there more exotic markets?

Outright markets come into their own on bigger tournaments such as the grand slam events of the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the upcoming US Open. The Tour Finals (on both the ATP and WTA circuits) are also hugely popular, given their best-of-the-best format, pitting the world’s top eight directly against each other from the outset. As we’ve already discussed, there are many more markets besides on diverse and specific outcomes, and we’re seeing more betting traction on quick-fix or rapid-settling markets.

However, FSB’s unique suite of social responsibility and player-profiling tools has observed that the shortest form of these opportunities (e.g. point-by-point) can tend to attract problem gamblers, so it’s important to ensure that your operation not only caters to player demand, but also cares for it with responsible flags and follow-up customer service.

How accurate can pricing be on tennis matches given so many variables?

As we’ve already discussed, with the progressive raft of data and statistics available, it’s possible to be incredibly accurate, harnessing and processing all these numbers in the most effective manner to improve modelling and drill down on the correct price every time – theoretically on any market from match winner to next ace or drop-shot winner.

Is it going to be a force to be reckoned with as US sports betting markets coming online?

I think it could be hugely popular. Away from the four tentpole U.S. sports, watch out for the rise of live tennis among a largely uninitiated public. As we’ve discussed, tennis’ scoring system has been perfectly harnessed by in-play algorithms, while the sport’s ubiquitous schedule and segmented scoring increments – not to mention its natural breaks between points, games – sets tennis apart from “slower” sports. The challenge, as ever, is for the live pictures to keep up with the live data, so that the viewer and betting experience is seamless.