The Coronavirus is likely to wipe off 95 per cent of February’s GGR in Macau with a strong likelihood that the 15-day closure will be extended until the end of the month.
Sanford Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu said: “Forecasts for the near term (i.e. 1H 2020) are largely guesses at this time, with the biggest variables being when casinos reopen, and even more importantly, when travel restrictions from China will be lifted. We estimate February to be down over 95 per cent, assuming the casinos stay closed for the rest of the month. China has put in travel restrictions across much of the country and many businesses remain closed or reduced working hours. A growing number of countries have been implementing travel restrictions on entrants coming from China and airlines are significantly reducing or eliminating scheduled flights. China stopped all group travel (including to Macau) and stopped the issuance of IVS visas – the reversal of these restrictions will be key for resumption of business in Macau.”
“For Macau, the near term looks bleak,” they added, “but we see a solid recovery in place in 2H followed by a strong 2021.”