China – Macau’s GGR to spike after 14-day Guangdong quarantine is droppedBy Phil - 14 July 2020
The end of Macau’s 14-day mandatory quarantine requirement for visitors coming in from Guangdong Province is in sight with normal service to resume on July 15 although visitors must be able to prove they have tested negative for COVID-19 in the previous seven days by showing a green health card.
Around 46 per cent of Macau’s gamblers pass through the border at Guangdong Province, generating between 30 per cent to 35 per cent of GGR.
Macau’s Gaming and Inspection Coordination Bureau (DICJ) has also confirmed that all people going into Macau’s casinos must prove they have tested negative for COVID-19 and hold green health codes.
Analysts believe that Macau’s GGR could jump back up to 25 per cent of 2019’s levels with expectation that revenue could reach 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels if the the Individual Visit Scheme is reinstalled.
Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky said: “We expect some pent-up demand to materialise in Macau fairly rapidly as travel restrictions come down. The overall trend is moving in the right direction.”
Credit Suisse analysts Kenneth Fong, Lok Kan Chan and Rebecca Law said: “With only Guangdong to be reopened and no re-issuance of IVS yet (existing visa will be expiring soon and players can mainly use business visa), in the near term we believe GGR could recover gradually to 15 per cent to 25 per cent of pre-COVID levels.”
JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Derek Choi and Jeremy An added: “Once the Macau-Guangdong travel bubble is proven successful (e.g. no hike in COVID-19 for a few weeks), we believe China’s government could further open up the border to non-Guangdong in phases, along with the resumption of visas. We’d guestimate demand normalisation should occur within two to three quarters post the re-opening, and we are hopeful that industry GGR could fully recover by around 2Q of next year unless there is another wave of COVID-19 in China.”