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China – Morgan Stanley predicts narrowing of EBIDTA loss for Macau casinos in Q4

By - 16 January 2023

Macau’s casinos should generate EBITDA loss of around US$320m during the fourth quarter of the year, according to Morgan Stanley who believes losses will narrow from the US$459m loss generated in the second quarter and the US$574m produced in the third.

It believes Sands China will generate the largest EBITDA loss at US$88m, with SJM coming in next with US$75m. Melco Resorts will generate the smallest loss at US$13m.

Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary, Dan Xu, Jeffrey Mak and Gareth Leung, said: “The market is looking ahead. 1Q23 is the first quarter after three years for normalized Chinese and HK visitation into Macau. We are already seeing strong hotel bookings for the upcoming CNY holidays and strong pickup in visitation and GGR).

“Daily GGR is tracking at MOP260mn (33 per cent of pre-Covid) for January 1-10 and could improve further during the CNY holidays, bringing the industry to positive EBITDA.”

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