The NFL’s new battle for attention

For operators and affiliates, this new NFL season marks a change from previous iterations. Over the last couple of years, the customer acquisition battle has remained largely unchanged, with sportsbooks competing with one another across the same verticals. Sportsbooks battled it out for the same audience, across the same media channels, with practically the same promotional content.

But this year, that all has changed.

Prediction markets are up and coming, receiving a big boost in popularity during the 2024 presidential election and seeing an increase in active users in each subsequent year. 2026 is no different, and the upcoming NFL season will mark the first time sportsbooks will have a direct competitor outside of the traditional betting landscape.

Prediction markets bring new acquisition opportunities, while also competing for the same verticals as sportsbooks: audience, engagement, media inventory, and more.

All in all, it brings a direct challenge to traditional sportsbook marketing. If a player couldn’t already pick between which operator it wanted to wager with, what happens when an all-new type of wagering enters the equation?

Prediction markets are competing for engagement

Prediction market engagement has been growing, as well as its advertising. According to research published by the American Gaming Association, digital ads for online sportsbooks had fallen by around 14% in 2025. At the same time, marketing for sports-event contracts spiked.

Through July 2026, consumers have reportedly seen a 232% increase in prediction market ads compared to the previous year, with prediction markets spending up to $200 million on digital advertising in the first half of 2026.

An increase in advertising means more consumers becoming aware of prediction markets and what they offer compared to sportsbooks. With growing interest in prediction markets, it becomes easier for consumers to associate sports-event contracts with traditional wagering.

The numbers back up prediction markets

That increase in advertising is surely doing dividends for prediction market operators. During last year’s Super Bowl, trading volume recorded across prediction market platforms soared to $1.5 billion.

During the FIFA World Cup, Kalshi alone reported $27 billion in trading volume. Combined with trading volume data from Polymarket and Rothera, overall revenue prediction markets generated during the World Cup hit roughly $50 billion.

But it’s not just revenue backing up prediction markets; app downloads in the US have also surged compared to sportsbooks. For the first two weeks of June, data from Apptopia showed that Kalshi accounted for the majority of app downloads, at 42%. This was followed by Polymarket at 31.2%, with sportsbooks trailing behind. DraftKings recorded 13.7%, FanDuel 8.9%, and BetMGM and Caesars both 3.9%.

Customer acquisition is becoming more fragmented

The upcoming NFL season will provide the ultimate test of customer acquisition for sportsbooks over prediction markets.

With prediction markets seemingly triumphing sportsbooks in all categories, it’s not necessarily because consumers are leaving sportsbooks altogether, but more that there are more companies competing for the same sports fan.

That means the customer acquisition journey will not only become more expensive but also more fragmented. One fan searching for a specific wager will surely be greeted with multiple offers of the same wager from different platforms, including sportsbooks and prediction markets.

From a performance perspective, the distinction between those types of products matters less than the overall competition. And while increasing promotional spend will not solve the issue, operators should instead focus on improving audience segmentation, implementing stronger content strategies, and gaining a clearer understanding of where customers enter the acquisition funnel.

Those who can identify high-intent users and understand the motivational behavior of bettors and traders will be able to promote the right message before competitors do.

What sportsbooks should take from this

With the emergence of prediction markets, a new NFL customer may also be on the verge of appearing. It’s no longer about competition, but understanding where the customer has come from.

One person may come from sports-event contracts, the other from sports betting markets, but the key here is how similar both are. Both sportsbooks and sports-event contracts complement each other, creating a seamless experience between them.

Someone coming from prediction markets may easily move to traditional wagering and vice versa. For marketers, that distinction is crucial. Operators that can capitalize on that move are the ones that show understanding for their target audience.

Conclusion

The real competition for the NFL season will be the fight for consumer attention among sportsbooks and prediction markets. As these two become more closely aligned in the industry, operators should reflect that change in how they approach their audience.  

Really, the ultimate competition is not about how the consumer spends their money, but rather about who will be the first to grab their attention and shape how they interact with the game.