Gambling & Risk Taking: Teaching Teens the Maths of Gambling

Arty, your programme focuses on teens rather than active gamblers. Why is early intervention so critical?

We know that the earlier someone starts gambling, the worse the long-term outcomes tend to be. Exposure is happening younger than many adults realise. Loot boxes and gambling-adjacent experiences are now built into video games, and a recent Common Sense Media study found that about a quarter of 12-year-old boys reported gambling, rising to roughly half by age 16.

Early intervention matters because adolescents are still developing the executive functioning systems tied to impulse control, risk assessment and long-term decision making. If we can help students understand probability, risk and cognitive bias before harmful habits form, we have a much better chance of preventing serious problems later.

There are multiple awareness campaigns in existence. What’s fundamentally different about your approach?

Most awareness campaigns focus on the emotional and financial consequences of gambling addiction. Those messages are important, but my approach is different. I use data, probability and statistics to address what I believe is the central cognitive bias in youth gambling: the illusion of control.

Many teenagers believe sports betting is a skill-based activity and that they can consistently outperform sportsbooks over time. A Siena College and St. Bonaventure study found that 82 per cent of young gamblers believed they would be profitable in the long run. After my presentation, only about 10 per cent of respondents believe they can beat the house.

My goal is not simply to warn students. It is to change how they think.

How early are young people now being exposed to gambling concepts through sports, social media and gaming ecosystems?

The exposure begins remarkably early. Video games often include gambling-like mechanics, most notably loot boxes, to keep young people engaged. Sports culture has also changed dramatically. One study of Game 5 of last year’s Stanley Cup Final found that a gambling logo appeared, on average, every 13 seconds.

Many adults grew up viewing gambling as a vice. Today’s generation is more likely to encounter it as entertainment, fandom and even financial opportunity.

A core part of your session is expected value. How do you translate a concept like that into something a teenager understands?

I rely heavily on 30 years of classroom experience. I start with the simplest possible example: a fair bet. Students immediately understand a coin flip where both sides have equal risk and reward. From there, I gradually introduce more complexity and connect the maths to real sports betting markets.

Once students understand that expected value is simply a long-term mathematical average, they begin to see gambling differently. The key is making the mathematics visual, interactive, story-driven and connected to situations they already recognise.

Do simulations change behaviour in a way that traditional education doesn’t? What happens when students see long-term outcomes play out?

Absolutely. Simulations are incredibly powerful teaching tools. Expected value can feel abstract, especially to younger audiences. That is why I use simulations throughout the presentation.

When students watch thousands of bets play out on the screen in a few seconds, the maths becomes real. Almost every time I run a simulation, there is an audible reaction from the audience. Students begin to understand that short-term wins are common, but long-term profitability is virtually impossible when the odds consistently favour the house.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, a well-designed simulation may be worth a million.

Cognitive bias plays a major role in gambling decisions. Which biases are most important for young people to recognise early?

The illusion of control is the most important one. Many teenagers believe they can beat the house in the long run. The data strongly suggests otherwise.

Are teens more susceptible to certain gambling-related misconceptions than adults, or are they simply exposed to them earlier?

I believe both are true. Teenagers are exposed earlier, but they are also more vulnerable to overconfidence and impulsive decision making. Adolescents are still developing the cognitive systems tied to risk evaluation. Gambling environments are specifically designed to punish people who misunderstand risk.

How do you address the gap between understanding the maths and actually changing behaviour in the moment?

That is one of the biggest challenges in all prevention work. Information alone does not always change behaviour. We know from other areas of prevention education that simply telling students “never do this” is often ineffective. It is unrealistic to believe that no young person will ever place a bet. My goal is to help students slow down, think probabilistically and recognise when emotion is overriding logic.
What gives me optimism is the feedback I receive months later. My favourite compliment is when someone tells me: “I think of your speech every time I go to place a bet.”

That tells me the presentation created a mental pause between impulse and action.

Is there a risk that teaching gambling mechanics could inadvertently normalise or even encourage interest?

It is a fair question, and one I take seriously. But I would argue the greater risk is leaving young people uninformed.

Many students already believe they can beat the system. Education replaces misplaced confidence with mathematical skepticism. I am not teaching students how to gamble. I am teaching them how probability works, how cognitive bias influences decision making and why highly efficient betting markets are so difficult to beat over time.

What role should operators and sports organisations play in supporting this kind of education, and should it be voluntary or mandated?

I’d like to see operators and sports organisations help finance this type of education. It is in their long-term interest, and it is also the right thing to do.

Young people are constantly being asked to evaluate risk, probability, prediction models and uncertainty. In the modern world, financial literacy must include gambling education.

Right now, there’s a major mismatch between the scale of legalised gambling and the resources devoted to prevention and education. Even though gambling disorder affects millions of Americans, public funding for gambling services remains dramatically lower than funding for other addictions.

As gambling becomes more normalised through sports culture and media, education needs to become part of the infrastructure surrounding it.

Could programmes like this realistically scale across school systems, or are they still too resource intensive?

I believe they can scale, especially because this work overlaps with broader efforts to bring data science into education. We live in a world that punishes people who do not understand probability and prediction. Students need those skills to make better decisions in an economy increasingly shaped by algorithms, speculation and uncertainty.

Part of the long-term solution is helping students become more comfortable thinking about probability, uncertainty and risk. Those are no longer niche academic concepts. They are essential life skills, and we need to teach them.

If this approach is successful, what does better-informed behaviour look like five years down the line, both for individuals and for the industry?

Success would mean young people understand gambling for what it is. If they choose to gamble, they should see it as an entertainment cost, not as a reliable way to make money. They should understand the risks, recognise the warning signs of problem gambling and approach betting with far more skepticism than confidence.

For the industry, success means treating education as part of a long-term sustainability plan. An industry built on informed consumers is ultimately healthier than one built on unrealistic expectations.