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Spain may lead the betting for Sunday’s World Cup final, but Hard Rock Bet has reported that more than 70 per cent of money wagered on the 90-minute result is backing Argentina.
Spain are priced at +125 to win in regulation, with Argentina at +250 and the draw at +210. Despite those odds, Argentina have attracted 64 per cent of bets and 71 per cent of handle in the three-way market.
Customers are also expecting an open contest. More than 80 per cent of bets and money have gone on over 2.5 goals, while 97 per cent of bets and 99 per cent of handle in the both-teams-to-score market are on “yes”. A 3-2 Argentina victory is the most popular exact scoreline among Hard Rock Bet customers.
Spain are -160 to lift the trophy, including extra time and penalties, compared with +130 for the defending champions.
One customer has particularly significant interest in the outcome after placing $100,000 on Spain to win the tournament at +550 on June 17. Victory for Spain would generate a $650,000 return.
“Once Sunday’s final is played, this World Cup will go down as the biggest betting event in American history – we’re talking the equivalent of ten Super Bowls,” said Neil Walsh, SVP of Sportsbook at Hard Rock Bet.
“A sport we were once told Americans would not embrace turned into one for the history books. The whole country wanted in. Game on!”
Mikel Oyarzabal is the shortest-priced player to score during the final at +165, narrowly ahead of Messi at +170 and Lamine Yamal at +180. Julián Álvarez follows at +325.
Spain have shortened considerably from +550 in mid-June after winning all four of their knockout matches in regulation, scoring eight goals and conceding once. Argentina have endured a more turbulent route, surviving extra time twice before beating England 2-1 through a late Lautaro Martínez goal in the semi-final.
England subsequently secured third place with a 6-4 victory over France on Saturday. Bukayo Saka scored a hat-trick, while Kylian Mbappé’s two goals took him to 10 for the tournament and moved him two clear of Messi in the Golden Boot race. Messi must therefore score at least twice in the final to draw level with the French forward.
Hard Rock Bet said France had attracted more outright bets than any other country before the tournament, narrowly ahead of Spain and Portugal. Argentina were outside the five most-backed teams before kick-off, with support growing during their run to the final.
The United States generated more bets, customers and handle per match than any other team despite exiting in the round of 16. Five of the tournament’s 20 most-bet fixtures involved the hosts, while Folarin Balogun narrowly ranked as its most-backed individual player ahead of Messi, Yamal and Harry Kane.
