NEXTPredict uses prediction market to hedge conference risk

NEXTPredict has executed what it says is the first use of a prediction market to hedge the financial risk of a major conference, securing up to $3m in coverage for its World Prediction Markets Summit in New York this October.

The hedge was placed through Kalshi’s recently launched flight cancellation market, with Susquehanna acting as market maker. NEXTPredict paid a $12,000 premium for contracts that would pay out if more than 50 per cent of flights scheduled to arrive at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport on 21 October are cancelled.

The company said the payout would offset the costs of staging the conference should widespread travel disruption significantly affect attendance at the event, which takes place on 22-23 October.

Pierre Lindh, Co-Founder and Managing Director of NEXTPredict, said: “Over 13 years and more than 800 events, we have seen firsthand how quickly circumstances outside an organiser’s control can undo years of work.

“Using prediction markets to help hedge that risk could be a godsend for event organisers because we no longer have to accept exposure as an unavoidable part of the business.”

Kalshi launched its flight cancellation contracts earlier this month after self-certifying the market with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The contracts allow participants to trade on whether cancellations at a specific airport exceed a defined threshold.

Tarek Mansour, Co-Founder and CEO of Kalshi, said: “Prediction markets are most powerful when they give people and businesses a way to turn uncertainty into actionable decisions. NEXTPredict is using a market on Kalshi exactly as markets are meant to be used.”

The NEXTPredict Summit will take place in New York on 22-23 October, bringing together industry participants to discuss regulation, liquidity, market infrastructure and the wider development of prediction markets.