Prediction markets rebound 256 per cent in 2025, Blask data reveals
Prediction markets evolving beyond a one-off political spike into a structurally expanding segment
After a dramatic post-election collapse, US prediction markets have staged a powerful comeback. According to new data from Blask’s US iGaming landscape report, the vertical grew by 256 per cent between January and December 2025, signaling that prediction markets are evolving beyond a one-off political spike into a structurally expanding segment of online wagering.
Prediction markets emerged as one of the breakout verticals of 2024, reaching an all-time high Blask Index of 17.9 million in November, the month of the U.S. presidential election. However, once the political event cycle concluded, interest dropped sharply. By December 2024, the category had fallen by more than 92 per cent month-over-month, underscoring its heavy reliance on major political catalysts. For many observers, that collapse appeared to confirm fears that prediction markets were merely election-driven phenomena.
The report from Blask states: “Over the course of 2025, prediction markets rebuilt momentum steadily, culminating in a 256 per cent increase in the Blask Index from January to December. This rebound suggests that user engagement is no longer tied exclusively to US political cycles. Instead, the category appears to be broadening its appeal across sports and other event-based contracts, indicating the formation of a more stable demand base. Industry executives have increasingly framed prediction markets not simply as a gambling product, but as a mechanism for pricing probability in real time, a behavioral shift that changes how users interact with uncertainty.”
“Competitive dynamics within the vertical are also evolving. Blask data shows that while early 2024 featured a more fragmented landscape, by late 2025 the market had consolidated primarily around two dominant players: Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket maintained the largest share of interest through much of 2024 and 2025, particularly during the US election cycle.”
Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated alternative, initially saw share compression during Polymarket’s surge but began regaining momentum following key legal developments, including court approval to list political event contracts and expansion into sports event markets. Despite ten new brands entering the space in 2025, barriers to meaningful share acquisition appear to be rising as the duopoly strengthens. The competitive structure now resembles other maturing online gambling verticals: early fragmentation followed by rapid concentration.
The report adds: “Perhaps the most important takeaway from 2025 is this: prediction markets are no longer solely defined by US presidential elections. The sharp 92 per cent post-election decline confirmed event sensitivity. The subsequent 256 per cent annual rebound confirmed structural resilience. As product innovation expands into sports and other long-tail event categories, and as regulatory clarity gradually improves, prediction markets are positioning themselves not as a cyclical anomaly — but as one of the fastest-evolving verticals within the broader US online gambling ecosystem.”
