Why the bookies are happy for England to stay… For now.

Is it coming home? Every major international tournament brings the same question for fans. For the bookies though it’s ‘how far do we really want England to go?’

The instinctive answer might be “as early as possible”, with patriotic punters traditionally backing the Three Lions in huge numbers and creating some of the biggest liabilities in the outright market.

England navigated Group L with seven points from two wins and a draw and two clean sheets before easing past DR Congo in the round of 32 and Mexico at the Azteca to reach the quarter-finals.

Speaking to sports betting community OLBG, David Murray, Head of Risk & Trading at AK Bets, says the ideal outcome from a trading perspective is for England to enjoy a deep run into the knockout stages but not all the way to lifting the trophy.

“The perfect World Cup for us is England getting to the semi-finals and then losing,” Murray said. “It sounds strange, but you get the best of both worlds.” Whether it’s match betting, player markets, Bet Builders or outright wagers, England fixtures consistently produce some of the highest turnover of the tournament.

“You want England to play as many games as possible because they’re the biggest events for our customers,” Murray explained. “They’re always the matches that attract the most attention and the most betting activity.”

The challenge, of course, is that every victory also increases bookmakers’ outright liabilities. “England are comfortably our biggest liability in the outright market,” Murray admitted. “They’ve always been the team people want to back at major tournaments and this World Cup has been no different.”

France and Spain have also been popular selections throughout the tournament, while even some of the rank outsiders have attracted notable support. “We’ve seen people backing some of the really big outsiders as well,” Murray said. “It’s a bit like the Leicester City effect. Nobody wants to miss the next huge outsider story.”.

While England remain the biggest financial concern, Murray insists they are also central to what makes a World Cup commercially successful for bookmakers. “The England games are the biggest occasions of the tournament from a betting perspective,” he said. “You obviously don’t want to be paying out on England winning the World Cup, but you definitely want them involved for as long as possible because of the excitement and interest they generate.”

It’s about managing risk while embracing the biggest moments in the sporting calendar and few events create more excitement, or pressure, than an England World Cup match.