Standing out in the Prediction Markets Gold Rush

Ed, recent acquisitions have highlighted just how quickly prediction markets are evolving. Beyond the headline deal values, what do they tell us about how investors and major operators now view the sector?

The pace of change is extraordinary. There are obvious parallels with the years immediately after PASPA when sports betting was opening up across the US and acquisitions were happening constantly. The difference is scale. Prediction markets are fundamentally part of the global trading ecosystem, which makes the addressable market significantly larger than sports betting has ever been.

That’s why we’re seeing billion-dollar valuations. Investors recognise the potential and they’re moving aggressively while the regulatory picture is still developing. Whenever that kind of opportunity exists, companies rush in to capture market share.

What’s particularly interesting is who’s making the acquisitions. Initially I expected companies like Kalshi or Polymarket to acquire operators that had already built customer infrastructure and operational expertise. Instead, we’re seeing major financial services and trading businesses making those moves because it’s faster to acquire proven capabilities than build them from scratch.

That creates tremendous opportunity, but also confusion. As the market expands, brands have to work much harder to demonstrate why they’re different – both to customers and to investors.

As more businesses enter the space, is there a risk that many begin to look and sound the same? How can companies develop a distinctive identity in such a fast-moving market?

Absolutely. Unless companies deliberately build distinctive brands, they’ll quickly blend together.
Ultimately, the product still has to deliver. Strong branding can’t compensate for a poor experience. But once you’ve identified your target audience, you have to build a brand that genuinely resonates with them. Sports betting offers a useful comparison. DraftKings and FanDuel established themselves early because they combined intuitive products with credibility and trust. Those advantages compounded over time.

Prediction markets are now entering a similar phase. Some companies are targeting retail users, others institutional traders, and each audience has different expectations. Understanding who you’re serving and consistently communicating that identity will become a major competitive advantage.

Technology often dominates conversations around prediction markets, but how important is brand positioning when companies are competing for customers, partners and investment?

It’s hugely important. If your technology genuinely creates a unique advantage, then that technology should become central to your brand story. But branding isn’t just about consumers. These companies also need to convince liquidity providers, institutional partners and investors. Building those relationships requires credibility.

International expansion also adds another layer. Unlike sports betting, where the US and international markets largely developed independently, prediction markets will be much more globally interconnected. Brands will need to build trust across multiple jurisdictions and audiences simultaneously.

Whether you’re selling Coca-Cola, cars or prediction markets, people ultimately buy brands they trust.

What are the biggest branding mistakes you see businesses make when entering an emerging market like prediction markets?

The biggest mistake is pretending to be something you’re not.

If your marketing promises capabilities your platform can’t actually deliver, customers discover that very quickly – and once trust is lost, it’s extremely difficult to win back.

The second mistake is failing to define what actually makes your company different. If you’re simply another commodity provider, then every commercial discussion becomes about price.

Companies need a genuine differentiator and then every aspect of their communications – PR, events, marketing, thought leadership – should consistently reinforce that positioning. People are remarkably good at recognising authenticity. If your messaging doesn’t match reality, they’ll work it out almost immediately.

Many companies describe themselves as innovative or disruptive. What actually makes a prediction market brand memorable and credible in the eyes of investors and customers?

Those words have become overused. A memorable brand combines a genuinely differentiated product with consistent execution. Credibility comes from doing exactly what you say you’re going to do, delivering it consistently and communicating it clearly. Innovation only matters if customers actually experience it. Otherwise it’s simply another marketing claim.

At what stage should founders start thinking about communications strategy? Is strong brand positioning something that can be built just before a funding round or acquisition, or does it need to be part of the company’s DNA from day one?

Most companies leave it far too late. They’re focused on building technology, raising capital and launching products. Then somebody on the board suddenly realises they need a communications strategy because they’re fundraising or considering an acquisition. By that point they’re scrambling.

The strongest companies integrate branding and communications into the overall business strategy from the beginning. It shouldn’t be treated as something separate from the commercial plan because investors increasingly assess how companies position themselves alongside the technology they’ve built.

As companies from sports betting, fintech and financial trading converge on prediction markets, how can businesses communicate a clear value proposition without adding to the noise?

It’s actually harder for B2B companies because there are already so many technology providers competing for attention. Whether you’re selling trading infrastructure, software or exchange services, potential customers are constantly receiving new approaches.

It makes differentiation even more important. Companies need to answer a simple question: why should somebody choose to meet with them rather than five competitors offering something that appears similar? Clear positioning isn’t optional. It’s essential.

Trust is essential in any financial or wagering product. What role does communications play in building credibility, particularly for newer brands entering the market?

Communications become absolutely critical when things go wrong.

Every exchange will face challenges at some point, whether that’s regulatory scrutiny, market concerns or questions around integrity. How companies respond often matters more than the issue itself.
Good communications can actually strengthen trust by demonstrating transparency and showing customers exactly what improvements are being made.

We saw something similar with responsible gambling in sports betting. The companies that treated it seriously built credibility over time. Prediction markets will face similar moments.

If a company wants to become an attractive acquisition target, what aspects of its brand and corporate story are potential buyers likely to look at beyond its technology and financial performance?

Acquirers want momentum. They want to see a business that’s generating attention, creating excitement and demonstrating a clear trajectory. They should be able to look back over six months and immediately understand how the company has evolved and where it’s heading.

That doesn’t happen accidentally. It requires consistent, strategic communications around growth, innovation and market leadership. The spokesperson also matters. Strong leadership often becomes part of the brand itself and helps reinforce confidence among investors and potential buyers.

We’ve seen prediction markets move into the mainstream remarkably quickly. How do companies ensure their messaging evolves alongside the market rather than becoming outdated as the sector matures?

The mistake is constantly reinventing your identity every time the market shifts. Your core value proposition should remain stable. That’s who you are. What changes are the supporting messages beneath it – new products, new partnerships, new markets and new opportunities.

Companies that continually change their positioning confuse customers, investors and even their own employees. Adapt your messaging, but don’t abandon your identity every few months.

Thought leadership has become a major part of B2B marketing. How important is it for prediction market companies to shape industry conversations rather than simply promote products?

It’s become incredibly important. The media landscape has changed. Journalists host podcasts, industry leaders create their own events, and businesses increasingly become part of the conversation rather than simply responding to it. Companies that actively contribute ideas, share expertise and help shape industry thinking build stronger relationships and create commercial opportunities that extend well beyond traditional marketing. That’s especially valuable in an emerging sector where many of the rules are still being written.

What’s going to separate the brands that lead the prediction markets industry from those that struggle to gain recognition?

The strongest companies will get both sides right. They’ll build genuinely outstanding products while investing equally in brand development and communications. Those two elements reinforce each other.
If you have a great product but never communicate its value, you’ll struggle to reach your potential. If you build a great brand without substance behind it, customers will eventually see through it.

Underdog is an excellent example. The company evolved from fantasy sports into sports betting and now prediction markets, but throughout that journey it consistently stood for integrity, customer focus and building the best possible sports product.

That consistency helped create both a powerful brand and a highly valuable business.